Managing Risk in a Certainly Uncertain World

 
 

Managing Risk in a Certainly Uncertain World

Historic drought in the Midwest, scorching temperatures across the country, a rare “derecho” that slammed Washington, D.C. and Superstorm Sandy make extreme weather events a top-of-mind issue for business and consumers alike. The Washington State Department of Ecology earlier this year released a report entitled “Preparing for a Changing Climate”, an integrated response plan for the impacts of climate change on our state (http://www.ecy.wa.gov/climatechange/ipa_responsestrategy.htm).

The report is a response to the reality that more frequent natural catastrophes may be “the new normal”, placing individuals and organizations at higher risk. Scientists predict current weather trends will continue and in some cases accelerate, posing significant risks to human health, forests, agriculture, supplies of fresh water, coastlines, and other natural resources vital to Washington State’s economy, environment, and way of life.

Businesses would benefit from following the state’s lead in preparing for the impacts of climate change. Prudent leaders should take steps to understand and quantify the risks to their businesses, make adjustments where possible, and mitigate inescapable consequences through insurance or other innovative methods.

Below are three steps CEOs, CFOs and risk managers can take to prepare for an uncertain future, where the critical questions are not if, but when, will climate-driven catastrophes strike, and how devastating willtheir impacts be to operations.

Step 1: Perform a risk analysis to identify exposures based on the organization’s susceptibility to likely impacts of climate change. For instance, are you a manufacturer that relies on cheap power to produce yourgoods? How would a tripling of energy costs impact your bottom line? For fruit or vegetable growers, what would happen if water rates tripled, or access was rationed?  How will warming oceans affect a commercial fishing company’s catch?

Forward-thinking organizations are working to better understand natural disasters and their potential to disrupt business. Three years ago, I-5 was closed for a week due to flooding between Seattle and Portland. The entire Kent Valley braces for the impacts of the winter and spring rains, which seem to increase in intensity and frequency each year.  If your business involves transportation, warehousing or manufacturing in or near flood-prone areas, you would be wise to establish and test contingency plans now, rather than hoping for better weather.

By looking ahead and considering a wide range of possible scenarios, smart businesses can position themselves to protect, if not expand, their businesses now and in the years to come.

Step 2:  Insurance companies are (understandably) reviewing their approaches to offering policies, coverages and limits.  And you can be sure that rates will go up commensurate with increased risk and likelihood of claims.  Only after you have completed a thorough risk assessment can you create a proper cost/benefit analysis of available insurance coverage.

Step 3: In addition to traditional insurance policies that transfer financial impacts of hazard losses, there are new and innovative ways for companies to hedge climate risk. There is a wide range of products – forwards, futures, options, swaps – designed to enable buyers to reduce risk associated with adverse or unexpected weather conditions. These products are available to address an array of weather events, including temperatures, snowfall, frost and hurricanes, in many parts of the United States and the world.

Now is the time to take a serious look at your exposure to climate-related risks. Considering a range of potential futures enables you to make adjustments that may help you avoid material adverse impacts, and could position you to thrive in a changing environment. A rigorous assessment will also prepare you to make more informed choices regarding insurance or other hedging tools designed to address unanticipated or unavoidable climate-related losses.

Mark Twain is well known for the adage, “Everyone complains about weather, but no one does anything about it.” Today, organizations can challenge Twain’s maxim by deploying a wide range of risk management tools and techniques to evaluate, control, and finance weather risks.

 

Seth Shapiro is a senior vice president and risk strategist at Kibble & Prentice, a USI company. He can be reached at 206-441-6300 or seth.shapiro@kpcom.com

 

Final Analysis: Would You Go to Work for Donald Trump?

Final Analysis: Would You Go to Work for Donald Trump?

Or would you rather end up on his enemies list?
 
 

Imagine getting a call inviting you to work for your country.

Now imagine your new boss is Donald J. Trump.

Would you move to Washington, D.C., to work for the president of the United States? For this president of the United States?

From what we know through simple observation, Donald Trump suffers from chronic narcissism, he doesn’t read much, he rarely smiles, he has a vindictive streak, he treats women badly, he has the argumentative skills of a bruised tangerine, he fears foreigners almost as much as he fears the truth and he spends his waking hours attached to marionette strings being manipulated by Steve “I Shave on Alternate Thursdays” Bannon.

Sure, you’ve probably suffered under bad bosses. But this guy takes the plagiarized inauguration cake. He thinks it’s OK to assault women. He made fun of a journalist’s disability. He said a judge couldn’t be impartial because of his ethnic heritage. He doesn’t pay people who have done work for him. He has been a plaintiff in nearly 2,000 lawsuits.

We have to assume that Sally Yates, the acting attorney general who got herself fired in January for standing up to President Trump’s ban on accepting immigrants from predominantly Muslim countries, has probably updated her résumé by now. No doubt she proudly included a mention that she torched the president whose approval rating after one week in office had dropped faster than it had for anchovy-swirl ice cream.

If I worked for Trump, it would most likely be a challenging assignment. I try to be gracious and diplomatic with supervisors and coworkers, but I draw the line with people who lie to me. Or lie to others and put me in an awkward position. With them, I’m not so gracious, and I don’t hold my tongue. Which would probably get me early induction into the Sally Yates Hall of Flame.

Or maybe on the president’s enemies list. None other than Trump’s reality-TV pal, Omarosa Manigault, has revealed that the president possesses a long memory — longer, even, than his neckties — and that his people are “keeping a list” of those who don’t like him.

I know I should give my president the benefit of the doubt, but I’m happy to make an exception in this case. I don’t like Donald Trump. And I would be honored to be on his enemies list. Not since I played pickup baseball in grade school have I had such an urge to scream, “Pick me! Pick me!” Being added to a Presidential Enemies List would be such a treat, a career topper, really. Better than submitting to a colonoscopy without anesthesia. Or watching reruns of Celebrity Apprentice. Without anesthesia.

If selected, I would pledge to save my best words for the president and I would only use them in the bigliest way.

Of course, making the enemies list means I might never get the call to join the new administration. I might never get to engage in locker-room banter with POTUS. I might never get to untangle the marionette strings. I might never get to buy razors for Steve Bannon.

It is a sobering realization. But we must serve where we are best suited.

John Levesque is the managing editor of Seattle Business magazine. Reach him at john.levesque@tigeroak.com.