Statistics maven Nate Silver, whose FiveThirtyEight blog accurately predicted the outcome of the 2012 presidental election, much to the dismay of certain partisan pundits, is predicting a Seattle Seahawks-New England Patriots matchup for Super Bowl XLVII in New Orleans on February 3. News outlets throughout the Seattle area jumped on the bandwagon Thursday, noting how Silver's accuracy in political prognostication is unparalleled. However, none seemed to mention that, earlier in the NFL season (and right after his election success), Silver was asked by RotoExperts, a Fantasy Football website, to predict the games of November 11/12. Silver got eight outcomes correct and six incorrect, including the Seahawks' victory over the New York Jets. Seems politics might be easier to predict than football.
Boeing has prospered — and has helped thousands of Puget Sound families prosper — for generations. To suggest that the company is better off by having its corporate headquarters 1,700 miles from its main factories and most of its employees is just silly. What’s more believable is that Boeing wants to isolate itself from the fallout as it continues to ship jobs from Washington to less union-friendly states like South Carolina and Oklahoma. Since November 2012, Boeing employment in Washington state has declined by more than 10 percent — around 8,600 jobs — despite spectacularly generous tax incentives extended by the state Legislature to persuade Boeing to keep production of the 777X airliner in state.
It’s this kind of “thank you” — and the decamping of the corporate HQ staff to Chicago — that rubs Seattle the wrong way. We should be jumping up and down, waving balloons and having parades in Boeing’s honor next month. But am I the only one who gets the feeling that Boeing is still doing business in Washington state because it simply doesn’t want to spend the stupid sums of money it would take to move its Renton and Everett operations to cheaper “right to work” states?
Condit changed the culture at Boeing, and, judging from the difficult launch of the 787 Dreamliner, it’s a culture change that didn’t take. I’m inclined to believe his predecessors from Bill Boeing on would never have moved the company headquarters to Chicago, and I’d be willing to bet that the people who run the commercial airline business here would rather have the 500 or so headquarters people back in Seattle where they belong.
Whether that ever happens depends on what Boeing’s future CEOs value more: being proud of Boeing’s remarkable history or being fearful that its remarkable history somehow diminishes its opportunities.
John Levesque is the managing editor of Seattle Business magazine